TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111068
Played Sep 11Finished
Libor Krasl
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11861113115111110
Vit Herrmann
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:04 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeLibor Krasl to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Krasl above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-10
Point 97 set 5, 11-10 — our read held Libor Krasl at 61.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Libor Krasl 3–1 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Krasl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Krasl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krasl 1526 vs Herrmann 1630
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krasl 100% vs Herrmann 40%
Krasl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krasl 60% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krasl +5 · Herrmann -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Krasl) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krasl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrasl 1.40 / Herrmann 2.75
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Krasl)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111068
Krasl1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 33 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Herrmann2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 67 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKrasl3wins
AwayHerrmann1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKrasl leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrasl100%3 of 3
AwayHerrmannn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krasl3Herrmann1n = 4Krasl took 3 of 4
S2Krasl4Herrmann0n = 4Krasl took 4 of 4
S3Krasl3Herrmann1n = 4Krasl took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKraslHerrmannK − HBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.229.8+8.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKraslHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 180 vs 217 / 44257.2%49.1%103 / 180 vs 217 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KraslKrasl 1.40/Herrmann 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Krasl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krasl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 5 · 12:39L. Krasl—11118113V. Herrmann—771161
WApr 5 · 11:00L. Krasl—1111113V. Herrmann—8990
WMar 28 · 15:15L. Krasl—1111113V. Herrmann—6770
LMar 22 · 15:45L. Krasl—101111772V. Herrmann—122611113
L. Krasl10
LSep 11 · 18:30L. Krasl1.914115111P. Maly1.8011911133WAug 19 · 20:29L. Krasl1.40991311113V. Toman2.75111111872WAug 19 · 19:30V. Toman1.834970L. Krasl1.831111113WAug 19 · 19:00L. Krasl1.67116118113K. Farsky2.1081141162WAug 19 · 18:00L. Krasl1.911211139123J. Marhol1.801421111102WAug 11 · 21:13J. Mejzlik2.0096111182L. Krasl1.73111145113LAug 11 · 20:00L. Krasl1.8011147842J. Mejzlik1.916121111113WAug 11 · 18:30M. Drabek2.20119981L. Krasl1.6191111113LAug 11 · 18:00J. Hanacek2.2511115113L. Krasl1.57951181LAug 10 · 20:38L. Krasl2.006440Z. Kuksa1.731111113
V. Herrmann10
LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102WSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103
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