TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118581
Played Sep 12Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214411611––––
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Chadima to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 58 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Chadima at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 18–14 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Herrmann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-14 in 32
Chadima
Wrong
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1549 vs Herrmann 1606
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 40% vs Herrmann 60%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 50% vs Herrmann 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima +1 · Herrmann +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chadima)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chadima form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 1.83 / Herrmann 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chadima)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13118581
Chadima1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Herrmann1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChadima6wins
AwayHerrmann4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChadima leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima33.3%1 of 3
AwayHerrmann28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima3Herrmann7n = 10Herrmann took 7 of 10
S2Chadima5Herrmann5n = 10split evenly
S3Chadima5Herrmann5n = 10split evenly
S4Chadima6Herrmann3n = 9Chadima took 6 of 9
S5Chadima4Herrmann2n = 6Chadima took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChadimaHerrmannC − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.843.4+1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 587 vs 220 / 44850.9%49.1%299 / 587 vs 220 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChadimaChadima 1.83/Herrmann 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chadima · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima57817911123V. Herrmann561115119102
WAug 31 · 20:29O. Chadima47116118113V. Herrmann4151191152
LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima311010110V. Herrmann371212133
WJul 2 · 10:45O. Chadima51911911113V. Herrmann4111711842
LJun 7 · 12:00O. Chadima421591171V. Herrmann4617117113
LJun 6 · 16:14O. Chadima4411711692V. Herrmann50911811113
WJun 6 · 13:15O. Chadima538121111113V. Herrmann44111013642
WApr 18 · 13:04O. Chadima4371113123V. Herrmann3711511101
LApr 18 · 12:00O. Chadima3811351182V. Herrmann46511118113
WMar 1 · 10:30O. Chadima4281211113V. Herrmann361110781
O. Chadima10
WSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681LSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892LSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113WSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102LSep 10 · 17:15O. Chadima2.0012991162Z. Kuksa1.731011119113WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171LSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 17:30L. Krasl1.40116135113V. Herrmann2.758111111102LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113
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