TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121085
Played Sep 12Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11612101210––––
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10
61 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 2–4 Vit Herrmann Vladimir Lopata has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Herrmann beat Lopata 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 2.20 / Herrmann 1.60
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Herrmann)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121085
Lopata2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Herrmann1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 42 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 30 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLopata2wins
AwayHerrmann4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderHerrmann leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata50%2 of 4
AwayHerrmannn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata4Herrmann2n = 6Lopata took 4 of 6
S2Lopata3Herrmann3n = 6split evenly
S3Lopata2Herrmann4n = 6Herrmann took 4 of 6
S4Lopata1Herrmann5n = 6Herrmann took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLopataHerrmannL − HBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.339.8−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 270 vs 221 / 45051.9%49.1%140 / 270 vs 221 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannLopata 2.20/Herrmann 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.1%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 14:45V. Lopata4111311882V. Herrmann47911511113
LSep 5 · 09:45V. Lopata389111171V. Herrmann4111136113
LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata321111821V. Herrmann4381311113
LAug 30 · 13:45V. Lopata367111171V. Herrmann4311813113
WOct 27 · 18:05V. Lopata43111137113V. Herrmann4027111192
WOct 27 · 16:00V. Lopata4011117113V. Herrmann25331181
V. Lopata10
WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171
V. Herrmann10
WSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171LSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 17:30L. Krasl1.40116135113V. Herrmann2.758111111102LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171
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