TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126963
Played Sep 14Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118511911––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 5–7 Roman Merkl Stepan Kalensky has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:17What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Merkl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Merkl
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1532 vs Merkl 1568
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 20% vs Merkl 40%
Merkl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 30% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky -2 · Merkl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.83 / Merkl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Merkl)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126963
Kalensky1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Merkl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky5wins
AwayMerkl5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky50%2 of 4
AwayMerkl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Kalensky6Merkl4n = 10Kalensky took 6 of 10
S3Kalensky7Merkl3n = 10Kalensky took 7 of 10
S4Kalensky3Merkl5n = 8Merkl took 5 of 8
S5Kalensky2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskyMerklK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.5+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 519 vs 274 / 56154.5%48.8%283 / 519 vs 274 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklKalensky 1.83/Merkl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 19:00S. Kalensky44111051262R. Merkl539121110113
WAug 1 · 08:59S. Kalensky341112113R. Merkl2481060
LAug 1 · 05:15S. Kalensky36911791R. Merkl4211911113
LJul 20 · 20:58S. Kalensky347121141R. Merkl4511149113
WJul 20 · 18:30S. Kalensky3961111113R. Merkl34119951
WJul 12 · 14:30S. Kalensky48691111113R. Merkl3711115552
WJul 7 · 19:45S. Kalensky48612118113R. Merkl44111061162
LJun 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky31411791R. Merkl3911611113
LMay 23 · 08:20S. Kalensky531110111292R. Merkl45112714113
WMay 23 · 05:45S. Kalensky331111113R. Merkl126240
S. Kalensky10
LSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173WSep 9 · 20:14S. Kalensky2.50711611113J. Gruber1.5011611942LSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680LSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691WSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113LSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123LSep 7 · 20:00S. Kalensky3.50512741D. Brichacek1.28111011113LSep 7 · 18:30P. Orlowski1.5011119113S. Kalensky2.50761171WSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113
R. Merkl10
LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113
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