TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126595
Played Sep 14Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811511114119911
Premysl Rucky
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePremysl Rucky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Premysl Rucky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Premysl Rucky at 58.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 0–3 Premysl Rucky Roman Merkl has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:26What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rucky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Rucky
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1567 vs Rucky 1514
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 60% vs Rucky 40%
Merkl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Rucky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl +1 · Rucky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rucky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rucky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.25 / Rucky 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Rucky)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126595
Merkl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back18% 8 of 45
Rucky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite46% won 13 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMerkl0wins
AwayRucky3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderRucky leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl1Rucky2n = 3Rucky took 2 of 3
S2Merkl1Rucky2n = 3Rucky took 2 of 3
S3Merkl1Rucky2n = 3Rucky took 2 of 3
S4Merkl2Rucky1n = 3Merkl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMerklRuckyM − RBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.745.0−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklRuckyBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 562 vs 31 / 6648.9%47%275 / 562 vs 31 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuckyMerkl 2.25/Rucky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Rucky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rucky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl4485111192P. Rucky46111149113
LJun 25 · 17:30R. Merkl3981151142P. Rucky44118113113
LMay 29 · 17:15R. Merkl36149941P. Rucky45121111113
R. Merkl10
WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113
P. Rucky10
WSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173LSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113LSep 4 · 18:30P. Rucky2.00611781D. Brichacek1.7311811113WSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WAug 25 · 20:48P. Rucky1.7351114113T. Hanke2.001151281LAug 25 · 19:45T. Hanke2.25117511113P. Rucky1.5731111852LAug 25 · 18:45P. Orlowski2.101111113P. Rucky1.677590LAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 21 · 20:39S. Kalensky2.50117561P. Rucky1.5061111113
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