TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142034
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111191012911––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 57.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 14–5 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-5 in 19
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1554 vs Lopata 1647
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Lopata 80%
Lopata
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +1 · Lopata +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.73 / Lopata 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Provaznik)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142034
Provaznik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it66% 33 of 50
Lopata2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 11 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik7wins
AwayLopata3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik71.4%5 of 7
AwayLopata33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik7Lopata3n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S2Provaznik6Lopata4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik7Lopata3n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S4Provaznik2Lopata6n = 8Lopata took 6 of 8
S5Provaznik4Lopata2n = 6Provaznik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikLopataP − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.3+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 487 vs 140 / 27048.1%51.9%234 / 487 vs 140 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.73/Lopata 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 8 · 16:24P. Provaznik351311113V. Lopata2011360
WMay 8 · 14:45P. Provaznik4061112113V. Lopata371191071
LJan 12 · 18:10P. Provaznik31118571V. Lopata3961111113
WJan 12 · 17:00P. Provaznik49117128113V. Lopata46511101192
WDec 29 · 10:15P. Provaznik49111179113V. Lopata4559111192
LDec 22 · 10:15P. Provaznik4791211782V. Lopata521110911113
WNov 5 · 14:11P. Provaznik51911118123V. Lopata46116811102
LNov 5 · 13:00P. Provaznik4011811552V. Lopata46711611113
WSep 10 · 10:45P. Provaznik331111113V. Lopata157620
WAug 27 · 15:00P. Provaznik48117611133V. Lopata47811116112
P. Provaznik10
WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881LSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102LSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113
V. Lopata10
LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851
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