TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136571
Played Sep 16Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911511119811
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 6–6 Jachym Juppa Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1581 vs Juppa 1486
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Juppa 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 70% vs Juppa 30%
Provaznik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +3 · Juppa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.80 / Juppa 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Provaznik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136571
Provaznik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Juppa1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik6wins
AwayJuppa4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik66.7%4 of 6
AwayJuppa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik6Juppa4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik5Juppa5n = 10split evenly
S3Provaznik4Juppa6n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik5Juppa5n = 10split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikJuppaP − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.6+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 491 vs 446 / 85548.1%52.2%236 / 491 vs 446 / 855Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.80/Juppa 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 15:00P. Provaznik43111110113J. Juppa29671241
LAug 12 · 12:59P. Provaznik35118881J. Juppa4071111113
WAug 12 · 12:00P. Provaznik4691214113J. Juppa4111101281
WAug 5 · 09:30P. Provaznik4011711113J. Juppa28811451
WJul 16 · 14:00P. Provaznik495111012113J. Juppa43113121072
LJun 16 · 17:08P. Provaznik331131181J. Juppa4611159113
WJun 16 · 16:00P. Provaznik481111510113J. Juppa4196111232
LMay 12 · 15:00P. Provaznik31611771J. Juppa4211911113
WMar 20 · 19:45P. Provaznik3811511113J. Juppa36911881
LFeb 10 · 20:15P. Provaznik36119971J. Juppa4071111113
P. Provaznik10
LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881WSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102LSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 15:30P. Provaznik2.2513411113T. Hucko1.571111771LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732
J. Juppa10
WSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113LSep 16 · 13:15T. Bertho2.5071111113J. Juppa1.50114661LSep 13 · 12:46J. Juppa1.751711126132L. Hendrych1.951971011153LSep 13 · 12:00J. Juppa1.53118891F. Kubos2.3851111113WSep 13 · 10:30L. Hendrych1.806115111J. Juppa1.9111811133LSep 13 · 10:00J. Marhol2.6391111113J. Juppa1.44116931WSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882WSep 8 · 19:45J. Simek1.50711851J. Juppa2.5011711113LSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.