TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142907
Played Sep 17Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116311711119711
Pavel Hala
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Pavel Hala below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 56.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 12–8 Pavel Hala Pavel Hala has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Lopata
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lopata 1641 vs Hala 1603
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lopata 60% vs Hala 20%
Lopata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lopata 60% vs Hala 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lopata +1 · Hala -3
Hala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 1.61 / Hala 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Lopata)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142907
Lopata1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Hala2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 36 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata6wins
AwayHala4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLopata leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata80%4 of 5
AwayHala60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S2Lopata4Hala6n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S3Lopata5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S4Lopata5Hala3n = 8Lopata took 5 of 8
S5Lopata4Hala2n = 6Lopata took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataHalaL − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.7+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataHalaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 272 vs 307 / 61151.8%50.3%141 / 272 vs 307 / 611Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataLopata 1.61/Hala 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:00V. Lopata50911118113P. Hala3711551152
WAug 20 · 16:59V. Lopata511011811113P. Hala4712811792
LAug 20 · 16:00V. Lopata31561191P. Hala4111118113
LAug 14 · 16:44V. Lopata4211117942P. Hala49791111113
WAug 14 · 14:15V. Lopata44116511113P. Hala4191111552
WJul 13 · 14:15V. Lopata361411113P. Hala2312650
WApr 26 · 11:30V. Lopata4112711113P. Hala371011881
WJan 3 · 19:00V. Lopata521110911113P. Hala4881211892
LDec 29 · 11:45V. Lopata156810P. Hala331111113
LDec 22 · 13:43V. Lopata46610111182P. Hala51111298113
V. Lopata10
WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750
P. Hala10
LSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132LSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 20:39P. Hala1.80116811132V. Honemann1.91411116153WSep 16 · 20:00P. Hala1.8021611143L. Kolman1.9119118121LSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990WSep 16 · 18:00V. Honemann1.911192141P. Hala1.8081111163WSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113
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