TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142869
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113711511116118
Roman Merkl
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 84 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 20–23 Roman Merkl Petr Provaznik has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-23 in 43
Merkl
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1545 vs Merkl 1568
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 20% vs Merkl 60%
Merkl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Merkl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.83 / Merkl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Provaznik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13142869
Provaznik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Merkl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik5wins
AwayMerkl5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayMerkl66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik6Merkl4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik3Merkl3n = 6split evenly
S5Provaznik2Merkl1n = 3Provaznik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikMerklP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.7−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 488 vs 269 / 55648%48.4%234 / 488 vs 269 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.83/Merkl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 17:15P. Provaznik331111113R. Merkl239950
WAug 27 · 20:48P. Provaznik46611711113R. Merkl4011311872
LAug 27 · 19:45P. Provaznik34811781R. Merkl4211911113
WJun 29 · 13:15P. Provaznik48111115113R. Merkl401371371
LJun 12 · 14:30P. Provaznik185670R. Merkl331111113
LMay 22 · 13:30P. Provaznik44111131452R. Merkl51851116113
WApr 2 · 15:30P. Provaznik351111133R. Merkl1834110
LJan 6 · 06:30P. Provaznik28551351R. Merkl44111111113
LJan 1 · 19:40P. Provaznik2977150R. Merkl391111173
WNov 1 · 08:00P. Provaznik49116811133R. Merkl47611118112
P. Provaznik10
WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881LSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102
R. Merkl10
LSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182
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