TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13147570
Played Sep 17Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119114711111811
Petr Provaznik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 84 set 5, 8-11
84 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 23–21 Petr Provaznik Petr Provaznik has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Provaznik beat Merkl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.91 / Provaznik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Provaznik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13147570
Merkl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back17% 8 of 46
Provaznik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it66% 33 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl5wins
AwayProvaznik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl66.7%4 of 6
AwayProvaznik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl6Provaznik4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Merkl4Provaznik6n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Merkl6Provaznik4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Merkl3Provaznik3n = 6split evenly
S5Merkl1Provaznik2n = 3Provaznik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklProvaznikM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.936.0+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 558 vs 235 / 48948.4%48.1%270 / 558 vs 235 / 489Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikMerkl 1.91/Provaznik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 15:15R. Merkl3931111682P. Provaznik45117511113
LAug 28 · 17:15R. Merkl239950P. Provaznik331111113
LAug 27 · 20:48R. Merkl4011311872P. Provaznik46611711113
WAug 27 · 19:45R. Merkl4211911113P. Provaznik34811781
LJun 29 · 13:15R. Merkl401371371P. Provaznik48111115113
WJun 12 · 14:30R. Merkl331111113P. Provaznik185670
WMay 22 · 13:30R. Merkl51851116113P. Provaznik44111131452
LApr 2 · 15:30R. Merkl1834110P. Provaznik351111133
WJan 6 · 06:30R. Merkl44111111113P. Provaznik28551351
WJan 1 · 19:40R. Merkl391111173P. Provaznik2977150
R. Merkl10
LSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182
P. Provaznik10
WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881LSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.