TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142008
Played Sep 17Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118119119––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ihor Emets at 68.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 18–8 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-8 in 26
Emets
Correct
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1508 vs Leonenko 1462
Emets
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 20% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 50% vs Leonenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets -2 · Leonenko +3
Leonenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Emets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.44 / Leonenko 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Emets)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142008
Emets1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite71% won 65 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Leonenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets7wins
AwayLeonenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets75%6 of 8
AwayLeonenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets8Leonenko2n = 10Emets took 8 of 10
S2Emets6Leonenko4n = 10Emets took 6 of 10
S3Emets4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S4Emets3Leonenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsLeonenkoE − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.735.7+1.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 504 vs 434 / 83951%51.7%257 / 504 vs 434 / 839Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.44/Leonenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets3961111113O. Leonenko37118991
WApr 23 · 07:00I. Emets521112612113O. Leonenko48910111442
WMar 9 · 09:20I. Emets331111113O. Leonenko269980
LMar 5 · 09:20I. Emets32116691O. Leonenko4071111113
WMar 2 · 12:50I. Emets381111163O. Leonenko2776140
WJan 20 · 07:00I. Emets331111113O. Leonenko259970
LDec 22 · 12:05I. Emets174580O. Leonenko331111113
WSep 30 · 11:00I. Emets48119611113O. Leonenko4691111872
WJun 19 · 11:50I. Emets4211119113O. Leonenko34781181
LJun 12 · 11:20I. Emets33116971O. Leonenko4181111113
I. Emets10
LSep 17 · 05:35I. Emets2.004114171O. Volynets1.7311911193LSep 15 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.7311813123I. Emets2.0081111101WSep 15 · 09:30I. Emets3.4031116113V. Bilobrov1.301121461LSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:00I. Emets1.3611512113A. Troyan3.006111081WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113
O. Leonenko10
LSep 17 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83881151O. Volynets1.8311119113WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.381511113F. Voinarovskyi1.5313460WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982WSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.