TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116836
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114211115118––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 63 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 73.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 0–3 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Leonenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Tymofeev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Tymofeev
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1448 vs Tymofeev 1449
Tymofeev
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 20% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Tymofeev 70%
Tymofeev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -2 · Tymofeev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Tymofeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 3.50 / Tymofeev 1.28
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Tymofeev)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116836
Leonenko3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Tymofeev1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 93 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it90% 66 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLeonenko0wins
AwayTymofeev3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTymofeev leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S2Leonenko1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S3Leonenko1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLeonenkoTymofeevL − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.042.3−7.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 838 vs 280 / 53851.8%52%434 / 838 vs 280 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevLeonenko 3.50/Tymofeev 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko321111641O. Tymofeev4491311113
LJan 8 · 12:40O. Leonenko49911118102O. Tymofeev49118711123
LDec 23 · 16:10O. Leonenko2410590O. Tymofeev341211113
O. Leonenko10
LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372
O. Tymofeev10
LSep 11 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.4478111382S. Solomko2.631111611103WSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113WSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113WSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113WSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521WSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110
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