TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105638
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117119––––
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 55.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 7–5 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Leonenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1507 vs Stetsenko 1375
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 100% vs Stetsenko 20%
Leonenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 70% vs Stetsenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +5 · Stetsenko -2
Leonenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Leonenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.73 / Stetsenko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Leonenko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105638
Leonenko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 111 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 61 of 77
Stetsenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 100 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back25% 32 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko6wins
AwayStetsenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko100%4 of 4
AwayStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Leonenko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko6Stetsenko4n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko5Stetsenko1n = 6Leonenko took 5 of 6
S5Leonenko2Stetsenko1n = 3Leonenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoStetsenkoL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.9+0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 835 vs 439 / 84151.9%52.2%433 / 835 vs 439 / 841Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.73/Stetsenko 2.00
Hit
What we said
57.3%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 10:20O. Leonenko—621211133M. Stetsenko—1111107112
WAug 20 · 09:50O. Leonenko—1111113M. Stetsenko—7480
WAug 17 · 08:20O. Leonenko—1111113M. Stetsenko—5560
LAug 16 · 14:00O. Leonenko—81090M. Stetsenko—1112103
WAug 14 · 09:00O. Leonenko—111011113M. Stetsenko—512681
LJul 2 · 09:50O. Leonenko—711511M. Stetsenko—11811113
LJun 29 · 05:50O. Leonenko—97111362M. Stetsenko—1111711113
WJun 25 · 05:35O. Leonenko—11411113M. Stetsenko—711671
LJun 18 · 06:05O. Leonenko—6350M. Stetsenko—1111113
WJun 1 · 09:30O. Leonenko—611811133M. Stetsenko—116115112
O. Leonenko10
WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 10 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.73116571O. Ovsiienko2.0081111113LSep 10 · 07:20F. Voinarovskyi1.671114115113M. Stetsenko2.1081671162LSep 10 · 06:20K. Klymenko1.401111113M. Stetsenko2.757870LSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Stetsenko2.6311814113F. Voinarovskyi1.446111261WSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113WSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113
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