TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105693
Played Sep 10Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611511711––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 56–67 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Maksym Stetsenko has won 56 of their 123 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:00What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-67 in 123
Ovsiienko
Correct
gap of 11 in 123, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1366 vs Ovsiienko 1385
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 20% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Ovsiienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 60% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko -2 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.73 / Ovsiienko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stetsenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105693
Stetsenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 124 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it99% 74 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it89% 97 of 109
Ovsiienko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 82 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko8wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko100%6 of 6
AwayOvsiienko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko6Ovsiienko4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko8Ovsiienko2n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S3Stetsenko7Ovsiienko3n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S4Stetsenko3Ovsiienko3n = 6split evenly
S5Stetsenko2Ovsiienko1n = 3Stetsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.2+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 841 vs 445 / 85652.1%52%438 / 841 vs 445 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.73/Ovsiienko 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:50M. Stetsenko—1111123O. Ovsiienko—86100
WAug 30 · 19:00M. Stetsenko—1111123O. Ovsiienko—54100
WAug 26 · 17:30M. Stetsenko—81111113O. Ovsiienko—116691
LAug 24 · 11:20M. Stetsenko—101030O. Ovsiienko—1212113
WAug 23 · 16:10M. Stetsenko—1413119123O. Ovsiienko—1611811102
WAug 20 · 07:50M. Stetsenko—1261110113O. Ovsiienko—101191282
LAug 19 · 19:00M. Stetsenko—111111762O. Ovsiienko—138411113
WAug 17 · 09:50M. Stetsenko—11136113O. Ovsiienko—9111171
WAug 16 · 18:30M. Stetsenko—1111113O. Ovsiienko—9870
WAug 6 · 11:20M. Stetsenko—11118133O. Ovsiienko—3211111
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790LSep 10 · 07:20F. Voinarovskyi1.671114115113M. Stetsenko2.1081671162LSep 10 · 06:20K. Klymenko1.401111113M. Stetsenko2.757870LSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Stetsenko2.6311814113F. Voinarovskyi1.446111261WSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113WSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 10 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.386810O. Ovsiienko1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162LSep 10 · 05:50F. Voinarovskyi1.531111122123O. Ovsiienko2.38251411102WSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112LSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110LSep 7 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.67761111113O. Ovsiienko2.1011119652WSep 7 · 10:35A. Martyniuk1.612950O. Ovsiienko2.201111113
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