TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100493
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711611––––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 61.4%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 10–7 Anatolii Kovalenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Ovsiienko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1398 vs Kovalenko 1375
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Kovalenko 20%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko -1 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 2.25 / Kovalenko 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Kovalenko)+0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100493
Ovsiienko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 80 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 77
Kovalenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 75 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it66% 49 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvsiienko5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko100%4 of 4
AwayKovalenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Ovsiienko5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ovsiienko1Kovalenko9n = 10Kovalenko took 9 of 10
S4Ovsiienko3Kovalenko1n = 4Ovsiienko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoKovalenkoO − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.734.1−1.4per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 854 vs 273 / 51352.1%53.2%445 / 854 vs 273 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoOvsiienko 2.25/Kovalenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.5%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko—49100A. Kovalenko—1111123
LAug 6 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko—4280A. Kovalenko—1111113
WJul 23 · 12:20O. Ovsiienko—1111911133A. Kovalenko—138118112
LJul 20 · 08:50O. Ovsiienko—6740A. Kovalenko—1111113
WNov 12 · 12:00O. Ovsiienko—11119113A. Kovalenko—541161
LNov 11 · 18:10O. Ovsiienko—11830A. Kovalenko—1311113
WNov 5 · 05:30O. Ovsiienko—131187123A. Kovalenko—1151111102
WNov 3 · 05:30O. Ovsiienko—1111113A. Kovalenko—7650
WOct 29 · 12:26O. Ovsiienko—111110113A. Kovalenko—441271
LOct 28 · 13:10O. Ovsiienko—611100A. Kovalenko—1113123
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110LSep 7 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.67761111113O. Ovsiienko2.1011119652WSep 7 · 10:35A. Martyniuk1.612950O. Ovsiienko2.201111113LSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772WSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113
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