TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100647
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611116911––
Vasiliy Smyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Vasiliy Smyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 4–3 Vasiliy Smyk Vasiliy Smyk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1399 vs Smyk 1424
Smyk
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 60% vs Smyk 40%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 80% vs Smyk 50%
Stetsenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko +1 · Smyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.80 / Smyk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100647
Stetsenko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 127 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it89% 100 of 112
Smyk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 97 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStetsenko4wins
AwaySmyk3wins
Stetsenko leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko100%3 of 3
AwaySmyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko3Smyk4n = 7Smyk took 4 of 7
S2Stetsenko4Smyk3n = 7Stetsenko took 4 of 7
S3Stetsenko5Smyk2n = 7Stetsenko took 5 of 7
S4Stetsenko2Smyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricStetsenkoSmykStetsenko − SmykBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match31.733.3−1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 842 vs 271 / 64052.3%42.3%440 / 842 vs 271 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykStetsenko 1.80/Smyk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 2 · 12:30M. Stetsenko—1111113V. Smyk—7660
WAug 19 · 17:00M. Stetsenko—11311113V. Smyk—911991
LAug 16 · 16:00M. Stetsenko—1191181V. Smyk—13116113
LJul 27 · 09:20M. Stetsenko—412561V. Smyk—111011113
WJul 26 · 18:30M. Stetsenko—111111113V. Smyk—138951
LJul 20 · 12:20M. Stetsenko—5500V. Smyk—1111113
WJul 19 · 14:30M. Stetsenko—1111113V. Smyk—9690
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Stetsenko2.6311814113F. Voinarovskyi1.446111261WSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113WSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113WSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113
V. Smyk10
LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141
Upcoming Matches
M. Stetsenko1 of 3 neutral
V. Smyk
Nothing scheduled
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