TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100654
Played Sep 9Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911811113118211
Fedir Voinarovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Fedir Voinarovskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 2-10
Point 84 set 5, 2-10 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 55.7%
84 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 4–2 Fedir Voinarovskyi Fedir Voinarovskyi has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:12What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Smyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1449 vs Voinarovskyi 1444
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Voinarovskyi 20%
Smyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Voinarovskyi 30%
Smyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +2 · Voinarovskyi -3
Voinarovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Smyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Voinarovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.73 / Voinarovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Smyk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100654
Smyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 38 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Voinarovskyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 28 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSmyk4wins
AwayVoinarovskyi2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSmyk leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk80%4 of 5
AwayVoinarovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk5Voinarovskyi1n = 6Smyk took 5 of 6
S2Smyk3Voinarovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S3Smyk3Voinarovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S4Smyk5Voinarovskyi0n = 5Smyk took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSmykVoinarovskyiS − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.839.0+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykVoinarovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 638 vs 175 / 34642.5%50.6%271 / 638 vs 175 / 346Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.73/Voinarovskyi 2.00
Miss
What we said
57.7%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Voinarovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk—11115113F. Voinarovskyi—771121
LAug 13 · 16:00V. Smyk—129111472F. Voinarovskyi—10111312113
WAug 11 · 14:10V. Smyk—1112113F. Voinarovskyi—91090
WAug 4 · 14:40V. Smyk—11813163F. Voinarovskyi—81111141
WJun 23 · 17:10V. Smyk—14117113F. Voinarovskyi—1261131
LMay 18 · 09:50V. Smyk—107111182F. Voinarovskyi—121184113
V. Smyk10
WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121
F. Voinarovskyi10
LSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 12:00M. Stetsenko2.6311814113F. Voinarovskyi1.446111261LSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591WSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113LSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121WSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LAug 29 · 18:00S. Solomko2.10111011113F. Voinarovskyi1.67612691WAug 29 · 17:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831111123E. Populovskyi1.8353100LAug 29 · 16:00F. Voinarovskyi2.00610100O. Osadchyi1.731112123LAug 29 · 14:30F. Voinarovskyi3.006113111A. Martyniuk1.3611711133
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