TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100685
Played Sep 9Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511611––––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 58.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 14–24 Oleksandr Tymofeev Vasiliy Smyk has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-24 in 38
Tymofeev
Correct
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1438 vs Tymofeev 1422
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Tymofeev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 60% vs Tymofeev 40%
Smyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Tymofeev +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tymofeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.20 / Tymofeev 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Tymofeev)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100685
Smyk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 97 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Tymofeev1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 91 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it89% 66 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk5wins
AwayTymofeev5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayTymofeev100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk6Tymofeev4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S2Smyk6Tymofeev4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S3Smyk4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S4Smyk3Tymofeev1n = 4Smyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykTymofeevS − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.131.1+3.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 639 vs 275 / 53142.4%51.8%271 / 639 vs 275 / 531Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevSmyk 2.20/Tymofeev 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—6770
WAug 25 · 11:40V. Smyk—11113113O. Tymofeev—281151
LAug 15 · 14:30V. Smyk—56111192O. Tymofeev—111168113
WAug 13 · 17:00V. Smyk—1114123O. Tymofeev—212100
LAug 11 · 11:40V. Smyk—8990O. Tymofeev—1111113
LAug 8 · 14:30V. Smyk—6590O. Tymofeev—1111113
WAug 4 · 15:40V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—5580
LJul 12 · 10:50V. Smyk—11139962O. Tymofeev—7111111113
LApr 21 · 11:40V. Smyk—10860O. Tymofeev—1211113
WApr 19 · 08:20V. Smyk—11119113O. Tymofeev—371141
V. Smyk10
LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102LAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.801111113O. Tymofeev1.919980
Upcoming Matches
V. Smyk
Nothing scheduled
O. Tymofeev
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.