TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106290
Played Sep 10Finished
Fedir Voinarovskyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11211512142111210
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeFedir Voinarovskyi to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Voinarovskyi above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 90 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Fedir Voinarovskyi at 61.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Voinarovskyi 11–8 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Ovsiienko beat Voinarovskyi 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Voinarovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Voinarovskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Voinarovskyi 1452 vs Ovsiienko 1386
Voinarovskyi
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Voinarovskyi 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Voinarovskyi 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Voinarovskyi -1 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Voinarovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Voinarovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVoinarovskyi 1.53 / Ovsiienko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Voinarovskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13106290
Voinarovskyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 45 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 37 of 51
Ovsiienko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 82 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVoinarovskyi5wins
AwayOvsiienko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVoinarovskyi50%5 of 10
AwayOvsiienkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Voinarovskyi10Ovsiienko0n = 10Voinarovskyi took 10 of 10
S2Voinarovskyi7Ovsiienko3n = 10Voinarovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Voinarovskyi6Ovsiienko4n = 10Voinarovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Voinarovskyi1Ovsiienko5n = 6Ovsiienko took 5 of 6
S5Voinarovskyi0Ovsiienko4n = 4Ovsiienko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVoinarovskyiOvsiienkoV − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match41.737.2+4.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVoinarovskyiOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 349 vs 446 / 85750.7%52%177 / 349 vs 446 / 857Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VoinarovskyiVoinarovskyi 1.53/Ovsiienko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Voinarovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Voinarovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:30F. Voinarovskyi—1111612112O. Ovsiienko—641114133
WMar 16 · 12:20F. Voinarovskyi—1111113O. Ovsiienko—6990
LMar 14 · 07:35F. Voinarovskyi—111110982O. Ovsiienko—781211113
LMar 9 · 08:20F. Voinarovskyi—1195101O. Ovsiienko—71111123
LNov 11 · 17:10F. Voinarovskyi—111111692O. Ovsiienko—761311113
LNov 10 · 09:30F. Voinarovskyi—149111072O. Ovsiienko—1211812113
WNov 3 · 07:30F. Voinarovskyi—1111113O. Ovsiienko—8290
WNov 1 · 12:30F. Voinarovskyi—1114113O. Ovsiienko—91270
WOct 27 · 09:30F. Voinarovskyi—1111113O. Ovsiienko—5680
WOct 25 · 11:00F. Voinarovskyi—111012153O. Ovsiienko—71210131
F. Voinarovskyi10
LSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112WSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113LSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 12:00M. Stetsenko2.6311814113F. Voinarovskyi1.446111261LSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591WSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113LSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121WSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LAug 29 · 18:00S. Solomko2.10111011113F. Voinarovskyi1.67612691
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112LSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110LSep 7 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.67761111113O. Ovsiienko2.1011119652WSep 7 · 10:35A. Martyniuk1.612950O. Ovsiienko2.201111113LSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772WSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191
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