TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111681
Played Sep 11Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5119111191012––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 65.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 5–6 Oleksandr Tymofeev Anatolii Kovalenko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1395 vs Tymofeev 1448
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Tymofeev 80%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 30% vs Tymofeev 70%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -1 · Tymofeev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Tymofeev) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.63 / Tymofeev 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Tymofeev)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111681
Kovalenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Tymofeev1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 94 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko4wins
AwayTymofeev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko50%4 of 8
AwayTymofeevn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko8Tymofeev2n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S2Kovalenko5Tymofeev5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S4Kovalenko2Tymofeev4n = 6Tymofeev took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoTymofeevK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.935.0−1.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 518 vs 278 / 53553.1%52%275 / 518 vs 278 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevKovalenko 2.63/Tymofeev 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 19:00A. Kovalenko—511521O. Tymofeev—11611113
LAug 25 · 13:40A. Kovalenko—13790O. Tymofeev—1511113
LAug 24 · 05:30A. Kovalenko—11113772O. Tymofeev—981111113
LAug 16 · 12:20A. Kovalenko—118991O. Tymofeev—71111113
WAug 11 · 12:40A. Kovalenko—11911113O. Tymofeev—411771
LApr 19 · 12:20A. Kovalenko—11461132O. Tymofeev—811119113
WApr 18 · 21:50A. Kovalenko—1111123O. Tymofeev—87100
WMar 10 · 15:10A. Kovalenko—1111113O. Tymofeev—6770
LFeb 24 · 16:10A. Kovalenko—1139111O. Tymofeev—61111133
WJan 27 · 14:40A. Kovalenko—1111113O. Tymofeev—5680
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171
O. Tymofeev10
LSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113WSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113WSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521WSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073
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