TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100666
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115611115112––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 62 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 61.6%
62 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 5–5 Anatolii Kovalenko Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1436 vs Kovalenko 1378
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 80% vs Kovalenko 40%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 50% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev +3 · Kovalenko -1
Tymofeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Tymofeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 1.53 / Kovalenko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Tymofeev)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100666
Tymofeev1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 91 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it89% 66 of 74
Kovalenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 40 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymofeev5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeevn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalenko55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev1Kovalenko9n = 10Kovalenko took 9 of 10
S2Tymofeev5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Tymofeev5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tymofeev3Kovalenko2n = 5Tymofeev took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymofeevKovalenkoT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.635.0−1.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 532 vs 274 / 51551.9%53.2%276 / 532 vs 274 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevTymofeev 1.53/Kovalenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 13:40O. Tymofeev—1511113A. Kovalenko—13790
WAug 24 · 05:30O. Tymofeev—981111113A. Kovalenko—11113772
WAug 16 · 12:20O. Tymofeev—71111113A. Kovalenko—118991
LAug 11 · 12:40O. Tymofeev—411771A. Kovalenko—11911113
WApr 19 · 12:20O. Tymofeev—811119113A. Kovalenko—11461132
LApr 18 · 21:50O. Tymofeev—87100A. Kovalenko—1111123
LMar 10 · 15:10O. Tymofeev—6770A. Kovalenko—1111113
WFeb 24 · 16:10O. Tymofeev—61111133A. Kovalenko—1139111
LJan 27 · 14:40O. Tymofeev—5680A. Kovalenko—1111113
LJan 8 · 14:40O. Tymofeev—69100A. Kovalenko—1111123
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541
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