TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111254
Played Sep 11Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1121315411112113
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 83 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 18–18 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1405 vs Populovskyi 1410
Populovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -2 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.83 / Populovskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111254
Kovalenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Populovskyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko6Populovskyi4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalenko5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko7Populovskyi3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko4Populovskyi2n = 6Kovalenko took 4 of 6
S5Kovalenko2Populovskyi3n = 5Populovskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.1+4.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 517 vs 337 / 69053.2%48.8%275 / 517 vs 337 / 690Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiKovalenko 1.83/Populovskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko—1113411113E. Populovskyi—21511232
LSep 6 · 10:50A. Kovalenko—114119122E. Populovskyi—811411143
WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko—91111113E. Populovskyi—117771
LAug 31 · 11:35A. Kovalenko—101191182E. Populovskyi—129116113
WAug 17 · 10:35A. Kovalenko—1111116113E. Populovskyi—61341192
WAug 16 · 05:50A. Kovalenko—1112113E. Populovskyi—71080
LAug 10 · 09:20A. Kovalenko—731111102E. Populovskyi—111174123
WAug 7 · 05:00A. Kovalenko—1211123E. Populovskyi—108100
LAug 6 · 10:50A. Kovalenko—8940E. Populovskyi—1111113
WAug 1 · 15:00A. Kovalenko—1411113E. Populovskyi—12850
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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