TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111184
Played Sep 11Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113611411––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 76 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 70.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 0–2 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Leonenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1511 vs Tymofeev 1446
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 80% vs Tymofeev 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 80% vs Tymofeev 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Tymofeev +4
Tymofeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Tymofeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 3.25 / Tymofeev 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Tymofeev)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111184
Leonenko3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Tymofeev1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 94 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLeonenko0wins
AwayTymofeev2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderTymofeev leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricLeonenkoTymofeevL − TBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match36.541.5−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 833 vs 277 / 53352%52%433 / 833 vs 277 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevLeonenko 3.25/Tymofeev 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 8 · 12:40O. Leonenko—911118102O. Tymofeev—118711123
LDec 23 · 16:10O. Leonenko—10590O. Tymofeev—1211113
O. Leonenko10
LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521WSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113
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