TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105699
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711117711511
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 68.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 24–5 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 5 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-5 in 29
Leonenko
Wrong
gap of 19 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1525 vs Ovsiienko 1405
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 100% vs Ovsiienko 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 80% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +5 · Ovsiienko +2
Leonenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Leonenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.50 / Ovsiienko 2.50
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Leonenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13105699
Leonenko1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 111 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 61 of 77
Ovsiienko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 82 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko8wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayOvsiienko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko6Ovsiienko4n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S2Leonenko8Ovsiienko2n = 10Leonenko took 8 of 10
S3Leonenko5Ovsiienko5n = 10split evenly
S4Leonenko4Ovsiienko5n = 9Ovsiienko took 5 of 9
S5Leonenko4Ovsiienko1n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoOvsiienkoL − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.341.0+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 837 vs 445 / 85652%52%435 / 837 vs 445 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.50/Ovsiienko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko—791111113O. Ovsiienko—11119772
WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko—11119113O. Ovsiienko—891171
WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko—9111110113O. Ovsiienko—11971212
WAug 30 · 13:00O. Leonenko—11149113O. Ovsiienko—8121161
WAug 23 · 17:10O. Leonenko—1311133O. Ovsiienko—116110
LAug 20 · 10:50O. Leonenko—1211671O. Ovsiienko—14811113
WAug 17 · 12:20O. Leonenko—111198113O. Ovsiienko—98111142
WAug 16 · 13:00O. Leonenko—31211993O. Ovsiienko—111061132
WAug 13 · 06:50O. Leonenko—121314113O. Ovsiienko—10111681
LAug 12 · 09:05O. Leonenko—124117142O. Ovsiienko—1011411163
O. Leonenko10
WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 10 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.73116571O. Ovsiienko2.0081111113WSep 10 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.386810O. Ovsiienko1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162LSep 10 · 05:50F. Voinarovskyi1.531111122123O. Ovsiienko2.38251411102WSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112LSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110LSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772
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