TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111072
Played Sep 11Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11912103111012811
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:04 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 61.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 14–25 Oleksandr Tymofeev Vasiliy Smyk has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-25 in 39
Tymofeev
Correct
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1441 vs Tymofeev 1458
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Tymofeev 80%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 50% vs Tymofeev 70%
Tymofeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Tymofeev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tymofeev) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.50 / Tymofeev 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Tymofeev)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111072
Smyk2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 98 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Tymofeev1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 94 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk4wins
AwayTymofeev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk80%4 of 5
AwayTymofeev100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk5Tymofeev5n = 10split evenly
S2Smyk5Tymofeev5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyk4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S4Smyk2Tymofeev1n = 3Smyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykTymofeevS − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.631.9−0.3per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 644 vs 279 / 53642.4%52.1%273 / 644 vs 279 / 536Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevSmyk 2.50/Tymofeev 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk—6560O. Tymofeev—1111113
WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—6770
WAug 25 · 11:40V. Smyk—11113113O. Tymofeev—281151
LAug 15 · 14:30V. Smyk—56111192O. Tymofeev—111168113
WAug 13 · 17:00V. Smyk—1114123O. Tymofeev—212100
LAug 11 · 11:40V. Smyk—8990O. Tymofeev—1111113
LAug 8 · 14:30V. Smyk—6590O. Tymofeev—1111113
WAug 4 · 15:40V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—5580
LJul 12 · 10:50V. Smyk—11139962O. Tymofeev—7111111113
LApr 21 · 11:40V. Smyk—10860O. Tymofeev—1211113
V. Smyk10
LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113WSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113WSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521WSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WSep 9 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.40119117113F. Voinarovskyi2.7581131152LSep 9 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.201112133O. Tymofeev1.61710110WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770
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