TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111194
Played Sep 11Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711511––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 37–69 Eduard Populovskyi Vasiliy Smyk has won 37 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-69 in 106
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 32 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1456 vs Populovskyi 1422
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 50% vs Populovskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111194
Smyk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 98 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Populovskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 102 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 77 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSmyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayPopulovskyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk7Populovskyi3n = 10Smyk took 7 of 10
S2Smyk5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyk7Populovskyi3n = 10Smyk took 7 of 10
S4Smyk5Populovskyi2n = 7Smyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykPopulovskyiS − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.4+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 643 vs 338 / 69142.5%48.9%273 / 643 vs 338 / 691Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 12:30V. Smyk—13117111E. Populovskyi—111311133
WAug 15 · 12:30V. Smyk—411913153E. Populovskyi—1191111132
WAug 1 · 17:00V. Smyk—1211113E. Populovskyi—10590
LJul 11 · 14:30V. Smyk—451191E. Populovskyi—11118113
WJun 20 · 20:50V. Smyk—11911113E. Populovskyi—811561
WJun 14 · 06:20V. Smyk—1111143E. Populovskyi—86120
WJun 13 · 21:20V. Smyk—111011113E. Populovskyi—212991
WMay 30 · 17:20V. Smyk—81114113E. Populovskyi—1141281
WMay 24 · 09:50V. Smyk—1211113E. Populovskyi—10950
WMay 23 · 18:20V. Smyk—1113411113E. Populovskyi—61511892
V. Smyk10
WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113
E. Populovskyi10
WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123
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