TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111253
Played Sep 11Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11681111830––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-0
Point 58 set 4, 3-0 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 63.2%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 3–10 Oleksandr Leonenko Vasiliy Smyk has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Leonenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1426 vs Leonenko 1497
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Leonenko 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 50% vs Leonenko 70%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Leonenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Leonenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.38 / Leonenko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Leonenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111253
Smyk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 98 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Leonenko1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 114 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it79% 64 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk2wins
AwayLeonenko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLeonenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk2Leonenko8n = 10Leonenko took 8 of 10
S2Smyk4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S3Smyk5Leonenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyk4Leonenko3n = 7Smyk took 4 of 7
S5Smyk1Leonenko4n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykLeonenkoS − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.2−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 642 vs 433 / 83442.4%51.9%272 / 642 vs 433 / 834Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoSmyk 2.38/Leonenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk—1112113O. Leonenko—81080
LAug 16 · 17:00V. Smyk—81161162O. Leonenko—119119113
LAug 9 · 12:30V. Smyk—65111372O. Leonenko—1111411113
LMay 18 · 11:50V. Smyk—881191O. Leonenko—11116113
LJan 8 · 14:10V. Smyk—981271O. Leonenko—111110113
LDec 23 · 17:40V. Smyk—8880O. Leonenko—1111113
LDec 9 · 15:10V. Smyk—810111152O. Leonenko—111223113
LNov 2 · 09:20V. Smyk—6990O. Leonenko—1111113
WNov 1 · 19:20V. Smyk—1011912103O. Leonenko—129111092
LAug 17 · 17:21V. Smyk—111110652O. Leonenko—961211113
V. Smyk10
LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621
O. Leonenko10
LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080
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