TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111246
Played Sep 11Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611911711––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 3–3 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1448 vs Populovskyi 1438
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 20% vs Populovskyi 40%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 60% vs Populovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.00 / Populovskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111246
Leonenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Populovskyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 102 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 77 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLeonenko3wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko100%3 of 3
AwayPopulovskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Populovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S2Leonenko3Populovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S3Leonenko1Populovskyi5n = 6Populovskyi took 5 of 6
S4Leonenko2Populovskyi3n = 5Populovskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiL − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.840.2−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 838 vs 340 / 69451.8%49%434 / 838 vs 340 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiLeonenko 2.00/Populovskyi 1.73
Miss
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 27 · 09:20O. Leonenko4111118113E. Populovskyi30591151
LMay 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko196760E. Populovskyi331111113
WMay 20 · 21:50O. Leonenko45111166113E. Populovskyi4688111182
LJan 9 · 10:35O. Leonenko32611781E. Populovskyi4111811113
LDec 26 · 07:05O. Leonenko36861481E. Populovskyi45111112113
WDec 5 · 09:00O. Leonenko48116711133E. Populovskyi46611117112
O. Leonenko10
WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982WSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123
E. Populovskyi10
WSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440WSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122
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