TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116848
Played Sep 12Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111311118115––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 13–10 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1437 vs Populovskyi 1467
Populovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Populovskyi 80%
Populovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 30% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -1 · Populovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.80 / Populovskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116848
Kurtenko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it91% 90 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it80% 118 of 147
Populovskyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 52 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko77.8%7 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko9Populovskyi1n = 10Kurtenko took 9 of 10
S2Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Kurtenko4Populovskyi5n = 9Populovskyi took 5 of 9
S5Kurtenko5Populovskyi0n = 5Kurtenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.338.7+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 643 vs 341 / 69552.4%49.1%337 / 643 vs 341 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.80/Populovskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko351111133E. Populovskyi2458110
WSep 2 · 09:05A. Kurtenko47111177113E. Populovskyi4286111162
LAug 27 · 11:20A. Kurtenko361181071E. Populovskyi3731112113
LAug 23 · 07:50A. Kurtenko359101151E. Populovskyi4311129113
WAug 22 · 19:00A. Kurtenko4211911113E. Populovskyi30911551
WAug 16 · 07:20A. Kurtenko521181111113E. Populovskyi4571113682
WAug 10 · 07:20A. Kurtenko541191011133E. Populovskyi46811124112
WAug 9 · 08:20A. Kurtenko48119611113E. Populovskyi3971111462
LJul 12 · 19:00A. Kurtenko34117971E. Populovskyi4071111113
WJul 9 · 09:50A. Kurtenko501111107113E. Populovskyi4156121172
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 12 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.8313119572S. Solomko1.831181111113WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153LSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561LSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko1.911111133E. Populovskyi1.8058110
E. Populovskyi10
WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440WSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko1.911111133E. Populovskyi1.8058110
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