TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118161
Played Sep 12Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131181189111012
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 104 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 38–70 Eduard Populovskyi Vasiliy Smyk has won 38 of their 108 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-70 in 108
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 32 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1418 vs Populovskyi 1438
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 20% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Populovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -3 · Populovskyi +1
Smyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13118161
Smyk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 97 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Populovskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 105 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSmyk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk6Populovskyi4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S2Smyk5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyk6Populovskyi4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S4Smyk5Populovskyi2n = 7Smyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykPopulovskyiS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.035.9+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 646 vs 340 / 69442.3%49%273 / 646 vs 340 / 694Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiSmyk 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk197750E. Populovskyi331111113
WAug 23 · 12:20V. Smyk3911116113E. Populovskyi35791181
LAug 22 · 12:30V. Smyk4213117111E. Populovskyi48111311133
WAug 15 · 12:30V. Smyk52411913153E. Populovskyi551191111132
WAug 1 · 17:00V. Smyk341211113E. Populovskyi2410590
LJul 11 · 14:30V. Smyk29451191E. Populovskyi4111118113
WJun 20 · 20:50V. Smyk4211911113E. Populovskyi30811561
WJun 14 · 06:20V. Smyk361111143E. Populovskyi2686120
WJun 13 · 21:20V. Smyk43111011113E. Populovskyi32212991
WMay 30 · 17:20V. Smyk4481114113E. Populovskyi351141281
V. Smyk10
LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440WSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113
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