TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111110
Played Sep 11Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311119119119––
Vasiliy Smyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Vasiliy Smyk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 54.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 12–11 Vasiliy Smyk Vasiliy Smyk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:14What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1415 vs Smyk 1430
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Smyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 40% vs Smyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +1 · Smyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.00 / Smyk 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Smyk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111110
Kovalenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Smyk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 39 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwaySmyk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySmyk62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko2Smyk8n = 10Smyk took 8 of 10
S2Kovalenko5Smyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko5Smyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalenko4Smyk2n = 6Kovalenko took 4 of 6
S5Kovalenko2Smyk1n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoSmykK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.336.6−2.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 520 vs 273 / 64553.1%42.3%276 / 520 vs 273 / 645Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykKovalenko 2.00/Smyk 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 12:30A. Kovalenko—7790V. Smyk—1111113
WAug 25 · 15:10A. Kovalenko—711511113V. Smyk—111113672
WAug 11 · 17:10A. Kovalenko—116511113V. Smyk—81111892
LAug 1 · 18:00A. Kovalenko—12780V. Smyk—1411113
LJul 26 · 15:30A. Kovalenko—5580V. Smyk—1111113
WJul 20 · 06:50A. Kovalenko—71111113V. Smyk—114871
WJun 14 · 10:50A. Kovalenko—91111113V. Smyk—114561
WJun 13 · 18:20A. Kovalenko—1111113V. Smyk—8890
LMay 31 · 10:50A. Kovalenko—911451V. Smyk—11611113
LMay 30 · 18:20A. Kovalenko—81111482V. Smyk—118811113
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393
V. Smyk10
LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190WSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113
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