TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111687
Played Sep 11Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111161199111412
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 60.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 3–4 Oleksandr Leonenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1385 vs Leonenko 1491
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 20% vs Leonenko 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 30% vs Leonenko 70%
Leonenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -2 · Leonenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Leonenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.20 / Leonenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Leonenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111687
Kovalenko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Leonenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 114 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it79% 64 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKovalenko3wins
AwayLeonenko4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderLeonenko leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko75%3 of 4
AwayLeonenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko4Leonenko3n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S2Kovalenko3Leonenko4n = 7Leonenko took 4 of 7
S3Kovalenko6Leonenko1n = 7Kovalenko took 6 of 7
S4Kovalenko2Leonenko2n = 4split evenly
S5Kovalenko0Leonenko3n = 3Leonenko took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKovalenkoLeonenkoK − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.336.1+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 519 vs 434 / 83653%51.9%275 / 519 vs 434 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoKovalenko 2.20/Leonenko 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 2 · 11:50A. Kovalenko—6540O. Leonenko—1111113
LJan 8 · 16:10A. Kovalenko—11812952O. Leonenko—4111011113
WJan 7 · 10:00A. Kovalenko—1112113O. Leonenko—91070
WDec 29 · 10:20A. Kovalenko—1111113O. Leonenko—9640
LDec 15 · 07:50A. Kovalenko—101211882O. Leonenko—1210511113
WDec 14 · 16:50A. Kovalenko—1181293O. Leonenko—2111051
LNov 30 · 19:20A. Kovalenko—87111272O. Leonenko—1111810113
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122
O. Leonenko10
WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113WSep 10 · 06:50O. Leonenko1.73143615113A. Martyniuk2.001211111372WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110
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