TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116857
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012511––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 57 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 56.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 8–25 Eduard Populovskyi Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 8 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-25 in 33
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 17 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1470 vs Populovskyi 1428
Tymofeev
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Tymofeev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 70% vs Populovskyi 50%
Tymofeev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev +3 · Populovskyi -2
Tymofeev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 2.00 / Populovskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13116857
Tymofeev2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 34 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Populovskyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 105 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymofeev2wins
AwayPopulovskyi8wins
8 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 8–2, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeev40%2 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Tymofeev6Populovskyi4n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S3Tymofeev3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Tymofeev5Populovskyi4n = 9Tymofeev took 5 of 9
S5Tymofeev1Populovskyi7n = 8Populovskyi took 7 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away770%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymofeevPopulovskyiT − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.545.8−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 540 vs 341 / 69752%48.9%281 / 540 vs 341 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiTymofeev 2.00/Populovskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev4513771172E. Populovskyi491111115113
WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev4211119113E. Populovskyi32591171
WAug 29 · 19:00O. Tymofeev48111169113E. Populovskyi4078111132
LAug 16 · 10:20O. Tymofeev4861311992E. Populovskyi501111611113
LAug 15 · 15:30O. Tymofeev4811811992E. Populovskyi45911311113
LAug 9 · 07:20O. Tymofeev29910100E. Populovskyi351112123
LAug 2 · 11:00O. Tymofeev4377111172E. Populovskyi50111198113
LJul 28 · 17:40O. Tymofeev49111181272E. Populovskyi511361110113
LJul 19 · 06:20O. Tymofeev4391231182E. Populovskyi521110119113
LApr 19 · 09:20O. Tymofeev50131111962E. Populovskyi541181311113
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123WSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.50111152S. Solomko2.5069111LSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.4478111382S. Solomko2.631111611103WSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113WSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113WSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113WSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440WSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.