TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116846
Played Sep 12Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11931111631141
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 4-1
Point 70 set 5, 4-1 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 63.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 4–10 Oleksandr Leonenko Vasiliy Smyk has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Leonenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1390 vs Leonenko 1460
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 20% vs Leonenko 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 30% vs Leonenko 50%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -4 · Leonenko +1
Smyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Leonenko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.25 / Leonenko 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Leonenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116846
Smyk2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 97 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Leonenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 111 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it78% 63 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk3wins
AwayLeonenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLeonenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk2Leonenko8n = 10Leonenko took 8 of 10
S2Smyk3Leonenko7n = 10Leonenko took 7 of 10
S3Smyk6Leonenko4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S4Smyk5Leonenko2n = 7Smyk took 5 of 7
S5Smyk1Leonenko3n = 4Leonenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykLeonenkoS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.838.8−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 647 vs 435 / 83942.2%51.9%273 / 647 vs 435 / 839Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoSmyk 2.25/Leonenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk331181133O. Leonenko25611801
WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk341112113O. Leonenko2681080
LAug 16 · 17:00V. Smyk4281161162O. Leonenko51119119113
LAug 9 · 12:30V. Smyk4265111372O. Leonenko481111411113
LMay 18 · 11:50V. Smyk36881191O. Leonenko3911116113
LJan 8 · 14:10V. Smyk36981271O. Leonenko43111110113
LDec 23 · 17:40V. Smyk248880O. Leonenko331111113
LDec 9 · 15:10V. Smyk45810111152O. Leonenko39111223113
LNov 2 · 09:20V. Smyk246990O. Leonenko331111113
WNov 1 · 19:20V. Smyk521011912103O. Leonenko51129111092
V. Smyk10
LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810510S. Solomko1.53121112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113WSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113LSep 9 · 17:00V. Smyk2.206560O. Tymofeev1.611111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Smyk1.7398111122F. Voinarovskyi2.00111138113
O. Leonenko10
WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123WSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790WSep 10 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.1091121162O. Leonenko1.67119117113
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