TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130367
Played Sep 15Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118911118811
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:12 and never touched — 75.2% is still 75.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
75.2%
75.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 75.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 10–43 Oleh Karpenko Ihor Emets has won 10 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-43 in 53
Karpenko
Correct
gap of 33 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1518 vs Karpenko 1575
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 80% vs Karpenko 20%
Emets
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 60% vs Karpenko 30%
Emets
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets -1 · Karpenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 3.25 / Karpenko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Karpenko)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13130367
Emets3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Karpenko1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 94 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets3wins
AwayKarpenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets33.3%1 of 3
AwayKarpenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S2Emets4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S3Emets4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S4Emets3Karpenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Emets1Karpenko2n = 3Karpenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsKarpenkoE − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.440.8−5.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 499 vs 362 / 69651.1%52%255 / 499 vs 362 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoEmets 3.25/Karpenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.2%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 08:30I. Emets28611110O. Karpenko371113133
LAug 27 · 07:35I. Emets34911591O. Karpenko3911611113
WAug 25 · 08:30I. Emets4161311113O. Karpenko371111781
LAug 20 · 09:05I. Emets32137120O. Karpenko401511143
LAug 18 · 09:05I. Emets4173121362O. Karpenko5411111011113
LAug 14 · 05:50I. Emets2111550O. Karpenko351311113
LJul 21 · 09:05I. Emets47121177102O. Karpenko501061111123
WJul 13 · 05:05I. Emets331111113O. Karpenko238870
WJul 9 · 10:30I. Emets45541213113O. Karpenko501111101172
LJun 29 · 08:30I. Emets321156101O. Karpenko4391111123
I. Emets10
LSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:00I. Emets1.3611512113A. Troyan3.006111081WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123LSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380
O. Karpenko10
LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270WSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193
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