TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111560
Played Sep 11Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118115––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 42–35 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 35 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-35 in 77
Troyan
Correct
gap of 7 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1633 vs Karpenko 1644
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 80% vs Karpenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 80% vs Karpenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan -1 · Karpenko +4
Karpenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 1.73 / Karpenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Troyan)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111560
Troyan1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 185 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it94% 101 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it79% 139 of 177
Karpenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 84 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan6wins
AwayKarpenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKarpenko50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan2Karpenko8n = 10Karpenko took 8 of 10
S2Troyan6Karpenko4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Troyan6Karpenko4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S4Troyan4Karpenko2n = 6Troyan took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKarpenkoT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.2+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 986 vs 360 / 68747.5%52.4%468 / 986 vs 360 / 687Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanTroyan 1.73/Karpenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan—6121111113O. Karpenko—11146892
LAug 31 · 10:00A. Troyan—9111151O. Karpenko—11713113
LAug 26 · 10:35A. Troyan—711951O. Karpenko—11511113
LAug 25 · 10:00A. Troyan—81060O. Karpenko—1112113
WAug 17 · 10:00A. Troyan—1113133O. Karpenko—911110
WAug 11 · 10:30A. Troyan—6131111113O. Karpenko—11158992
WAug 6 · 10:35A. Troyan—81111113O. Karpenko—115951
LAug 4 · 06:35A. Troyan—71070O. Karpenko—1112113
WJul 27 · 05:35A. Troyan—61111113O. Karpenko—113121
WJul 24 · 10:05A. Troyan—1111133O. Karpenko—87110
A. Troyan10
WSep 11 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.103890A. Troyan1.671111113LSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 11 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.2066100A. Troyan1.611111123WSep 10 · 11:35D. Khairov2.102340A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov3.00781141A. Troyan1.3611116113WSep 10 · 07:05V. Vietrov2.10121291242A. Troyan1.6710141110113WSep 10 · 05:05O. Volynets2.1041160A. Troyan1.671113113WSep 8 · 12:05A. Troyan1.611111113O. Volynets2.208660
O. Karpenko10
LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113WSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113WSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461WSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892
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