TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105600
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911119611––
Andrey Troyan
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched — 78.2% is still 78.2%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
78.2%
78.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 78.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 2–8 Andrey Troyan Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Troyan
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1528 vs Troyan 1604
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Troyan 80%
Troyan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Troyan 60%
Troyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -3 · Troyan +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Troyan) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 4.00 / Troyan 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Troyan)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13105600
Osadchyi4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 112 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Troyan1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 180 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it93% 97 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it78% 135 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi2wins
AwayTroyan8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayTroyan85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10
S2Osadchyi2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S3Osadchyi3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi3Troyan3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiTroyanO − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.637.4−8.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 859 vs 464 / 98151.3%47.3%441 / 859 vs 464 / 981Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanOsadchyi 4.00/Troyan 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.9%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi—591161A. Troyan—11119113
WSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi—71111113A. Troyan—119651
LSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi—4690A. Troyan—1111113
LAug 11 · 07:00O. Osadchyi—5511101A. Troyan—11112123
LAug 4 · 11:05O. Osadchyi—8490A. Troyan—1111113
LJul 22 · 09:05O. Osadchyi—5940A. Troyan—1111113
LJul 4 · 11:20O. Osadchyi—3350A. Troyan—1111113
LJul 1 · 04:30O. Osadchyi—1110481A. Troyan—81211113
LJun 27 · 17:30O. Osadchyi—11611192A. Troyan—811119113
WJun 21 · 12:50O. Osadchyi—13118123A. Troyan—11911101
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 10 · 08:35D. Khairov1.808670O. Osadchyi1.911111113LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192LSep 10 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov1.61111013113O. Osadchyi2.208121171LSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.00491112113D. Khairov1.73111171052WSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi5.0071111113A. Troyan1.14119651WSep 8 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.6761211113O. Volynets2.101110761LSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113WSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121LSep 7 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.8361481182D. Khairov1.831112116113
A. Troyan10
WSep 10 · 11:35D. Khairov2.102340A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov3.00781141A. Troyan1.3611116113WSep 10 · 07:05V. Vietrov2.10121291242A. Troyan1.6710141110113WSep 10 · 05:05O. Volynets2.1041160A. Troyan1.671113113WSep 8 · 12:05A. Troyan1.611111113O. Volynets2.208660LSep 8 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251111113A. Troyan3.755960LSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi5.0071111113A. Troyan1.14119651LSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123LSep 8 · 06:05D. Khairov2.2011911123A. Troyan1.619115101WSep 7 · 11:30S. Solomko3.002670A. Troyan1.361111113
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