TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105614
Played Sep 10Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121311117––
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 58.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 5–4 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolesnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1541 vs Osadchyi 1555
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 40% vs Osadchyi 60%
Osadchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 50% vs Osadchyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov -1 · Osadchyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kolesnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.61 / Osadchyi 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kolesnykov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105614
Kolesnykov1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 100 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Osadchyi2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 112 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKolesnykov5wins
AwayOsadchyi4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKolesnykov leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov80%4 of 5
AwayOsadchyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov5Osadchyi4n = 9Kolesnykov took 5 of 9
S2Kolesnykov5Osadchyi4n = 9Kolesnykov took 5 of 9
S3Kolesnykov5Osadchyi4n = 9Kolesnykov took 5 of 9
S4Kolesnykov3Osadchyi4n = 7Osadchyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKolesnykovOsadchyiK − OBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.435.8+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 670 vs 440 / 85553.1%51.5%356 / 670 vs 440 / 855Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.61/Osadchyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolesnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 7 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov—9811121O. Osadchyi—11119143
WAug 27 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov—1111113O. Osadchyi—5850
WAug 24 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov—11115133O. Osadchyi—9711111
LJul 21 · 16:40V. Kolesnykov—72140O. Osadchyi—1111163
LJul 3 · 16:00V. Kolesnykov—11114392O. Osadchyi—751111113
LJun 30 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov—6101171O. Osadchyi—11128113
WApr 13 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov—11611113O. Osadchyi—811671
WJul 25 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov—101111113O. Osadchyi—126321
WJul 21 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov—111195113O. Osadchyi—68111152
V. Kolesnykov10
LSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121WSep 7 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.7381111113S. Solomko2.00118891WSep 7 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov2.1061111113O. Volynets1.67119871LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov2.10124591D. Khairov1.67101111113LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 2 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov2.2551111113D. Khairov1.57119441LSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990WSep 2 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov2.20912119133O. Volynets1.611110511112WSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov2.75781171A. Troyan1.4011116113
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192LSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.00491112113D. Khairov1.73111171052WSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi5.0071111113A. Troyan1.14119651WSep 8 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.6761211113O. Volynets2.101110761LSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113WSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121LSep 7 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.8361481182D. Khairov1.831112116113LSep 7 · 07:30O. Osadchyi2.25111110832S. Solomko1.57861211113LSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113
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