TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094501
Played Sep 8Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1149111147111012
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 61.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 41–83 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrey Troyan has won 41 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-83 in 124
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 42 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1589 vs Kovshun 1535
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 80% vs Kovshun 40%
Troyan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 70% vs Kovshun 40%
Troyan
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan -1 · Kovshun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 2.63 / Kovshun 1.44
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kovshun)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094501
Troyan2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 56 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Kovshun1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 87 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 63 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan3wins
AwayKovshun7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan50%2 of 4
AwayKovshun83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Troyan4Kovshun4n = 8split evenly
S5Troyan2Kovshun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKovshunT − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.7−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 980 vs 339 / 63447.2%53.5%463 / 980 vs 339 / 634Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunTroyan 2.63/Kovshun 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan—119117102Y. Kovshun—411411123
WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan—118711113Y. Kovshun—71111272
LSep 5 · 09:50A. Troyan—1112811102Y. Kovshun—314119123
LSep 4 · 08:00A. Troyan—88110Y. Kovshun—1111133
WAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan—118611113Y. Kovshun—61111862
WAug 28 · 04:30A. Troyan—51211113Y. Kovshun—1110391
LAug 15 · 05:35A. Troyan—9111291Y. Kovshun—11914113
LAug 14 · 05:05A. Troyan—10680Y. Kovshun—1211113
LJul 31 · 05:03A. Troyan—821141Y. Kovshun—11117113
LJul 28 · 10:35A. Troyan—811791Y. Kovshun—11611113
A. Troyan10
LSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi5.0071111113A. Troyan1.14119651LSep 8 · 06:05D. Khairov2.2011911123A. Troyan1.619115101WSep 7 · 11:30S. Solomko3.002670A. Troyan1.361111113WSep 7 · 10:00A. Troyan1.801111143O. Volynets1.9146120WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113
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