TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110982
Played Sep 11Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112181641181169
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-9
Point 96 set 5, 6-9 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 59.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–12 Oleh Karpenko Andrii Kotiash has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Karpenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1527 vs Karpenko 1637
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Karpenko 80%
Karpenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 30% vs Karpenko 60%
Karpenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -4 · Karpenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.20 / Karpenko 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Karpenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13110982
Kotiash2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Karpenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash4wins
AwayKarpenko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash100%4 of 4
AwayKarpenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kotiash4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash6Karpenko4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S4Kotiash0Karpenko4n = 4Karpenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKarpenkoKotiash − KarpenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.633.8−3.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 466 vs 359 / 68647.9%52.3%223 / 466 vs 359 / 686Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoKotiash 2.20/Karpenko 1.61
Hit
What we said
59.7%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash—101050O. Karpenko—1212113
LSep 1 · 13:40A. Kotiash—341171O. Karpenko—11119113
LAug 26 · 09:05A. Kotiash—911531O. Karpenko—11811113
WAug 6 · 09:05A. Kotiash—1112113O. Karpenko—81090
WAug 4 · 10:35A. Kotiash—1111133O. Karpenko—48110
WJul 9 · 09:00A. Kotiash—1111113O. Karpenko—6620
WApr 29 · 05:00A. Kotiash—1112118113O. Karpenko—31491182
LApr 7 · 07:35A. Kotiash—2660O. Karpenko—1111113
LApr 2 · 05:00A. Kotiash—1011100O. Karpenko—1213123
LMar 30 · 08:35A. Kotiash—641171O. Karpenko—11118113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 11 · 09:30A. Kotiash1.409720V. Bilobrov2.751111113LSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.2066100A. Troyan1.611111123LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113WSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113WSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461WSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100
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