TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111558
Played Sep 11Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911511––––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Andrii Kotiash at 54.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–4 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kotiash
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Kotiash
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1527 vs Kovshun 1550
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 40% vs Kovshun 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -3 · Kovshun -1
Kotiash
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotiash) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.73 / Kovshun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotiash)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111558
Kotiash1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 51 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Kovshun2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 44 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash6wins
AwayKovshun4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotiash leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovshun66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash7Kovshun3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S2Kotiash4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S4Kotiash4Kovshun2n = 6Kotiash took 4 of 6
S5Kotiash4Kovshun1n = 5Kotiash took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKovshunKotiash − KovshunBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.136.8+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 466 vs 342 / 63947.9%53.5%223 / 466 vs 342 / 639Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.73/Kovshun 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash—8950Y. Kovshun—1111113
WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash—117711113Y. Kovshun—91111972
LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash—118841Y. Kovshun—91111113
WAug 29 · 09:05A. Kotiash—1111113Y. Kovshun—4530
WAug 28 · 06:00A. Kotiash—1111123Y. Kovshun—68100
LJul 18 · 05:35A. Kotiash—10740Y. Kovshun—1211113
WJul 17 · 11:00A. Kotiash—511911113Y. Kovshun—11811962
WJul 11 · 09:05A. Kotiash—118811113Y. Kovshun—71111642
WJul 9 · 08:00A. Kotiash—111175113Y. Kovshun—49111182
LMay 17 · 11:50A. Kotiash—11851172Y. Kovshun—911117113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 11 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.2066100A. Troyan1.611111123LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3351161182V. Bilobrov3.25119115113WSep 8 · 11:35D. Khairov3.50811111162Y. Kovshun1.28119413113LSep 8 · 10:35O. Volynets2.101111113Y. Kovshun1.675560WSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113
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