TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111229
Played Sep 11Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811116118––
Andrey Troyan
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 61.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 83–41 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 41 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
83-41 in 124
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 42 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1550 vs Troyan 1649
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 60% vs Troyan 100%
Troyan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 60% vs Troyan 80%
Troyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +1 · Troyan +5
Troyan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.50 / Troyan 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kovshun)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111229
Kovshun1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Troyan2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 55 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun7wins
AwayTroyan3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun83.3%5 of 6
AwayTroyan50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun6Troyan4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun7Troyan3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Kovshun7Troyan3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Kovshun4Troyan4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovshun2Troyan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunTroyanK − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.6+1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 639 vs 468 / 98553.5%47.5%342 / 639 vs 468 / 985Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.50/Troyan 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:05Y. Kovshun—411411123A. Troyan—119117102
LSep 5 · 10:52Y. Kovshun—71111272A. Troyan—118711113
WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun—314119123A. Troyan—1112811102
WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun—1111133A. Troyan—88110
LAug 29 · 11:35Y. Kovshun—61111862A. Troyan—118611113
LAug 28 · 04:30Y. Kovshun—1110391A. Troyan—51211113
WAug 15 · 05:35Y. Kovshun—11914113A. Troyan—9111291
WAug 14 · 05:05Y. Kovshun—1211113A. Troyan—10680
WJul 31 · 05:03Y. Kovshun—11117113A. Troyan—821141
WJul 28 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—11611113A. Troyan—811791
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3351161182V. Bilobrov3.25119115113WSep 8 · 11:35D. Khairov3.50811111162Y. Kovshun1.28119413113LSep 8 · 10:35O. Volynets2.101111113Y. Kovshun1.675560WSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170
A. Troyan10
WSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 11 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.2066100A. Troyan1.611111123WSep 10 · 11:35D. Khairov2.102340A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov3.00781141A. Troyan1.3611116113WSep 10 · 07:05V. Vietrov2.10121291242A. Troyan1.6710141110113WSep 10 · 05:05O. Volynets2.1041160A. Troyan1.671113113LSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102
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