TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094674
Played Sep 8Finished
Dmytro Khairov
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191141113611
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Khairov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 73.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Khairov 6–42 Yaroslav Kovshun Dmytro Khairov has won 6 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-42 in 48
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 36 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khairov 1557 vs Kovshun 1534
Khairov
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khairov 60% vs Kovshun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khairov 60% vs Kovshun 40%
Khairov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khairov -1 · Kovshun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhairov 3.50 / Kovshun 1.28
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kovshun)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13094674
Khairov3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 44 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kovshun1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 87 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 63 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhairov2wins
AwayKovshun8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhairov50%2 of 4
AwayKovshun100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khairov4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Khairov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Khairov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Khairov2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhairovKovshunKhairov − KovshunBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.138.9−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhairovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 422 vs 340 / 63647.2%53.5%199 / 422 vs 340 / 636Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKhairov 3.50/Kovshun 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.4%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 17 · 04:30D. Khairov—7950Y. Kovshun—1111113
WJul 4 · 11:30D. Khairov—13913113Y. Kovshun—11111141
WJun 28 · 11:05D. Khairov—11412113Y. Kovshun—9111091
LJun 20 · 06:35D. Khairov—611551Y. Kovshun—11511113
LJun 7 · 05:35D. Khairov—8880Y. Kovshun—1111113
LJun 3 · 08:05D. Khairov—91011101Y. Kovshun—11126123
LJun 1 · 06:35D. Khairov—111110772Y. Kovshun—991211113
LMay 25 · 05:30D. Khairov—1212541Y. Kovshun—141011113
LFeb 23 · 09:35D. Khairov—119981Y. Kovshun—71111113
LFeb 19 · 12:35D. Khairov—9460Y. Kovshun—111183
D. Khairov10
LSep 8 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.00491112113D. Khairov1.73111171052WSep 8 · 08:35D. Khairov2.20131189113O. Volynets1.61119111152LSep 8 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.401111113D. Khairov2.756550WSep 8 · 06:05D. Khairov2.2011911123A. Troyan1.619115101WSep 7 · 11:00D. Khairov2.381111113O. Volynets1.537960WSep 7 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.8361481182D. Khairov1.831112116113LSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov2.10124591D. Khairov1.67101111113WSep 7 · 05:30D. Khairov1.502011113S. Solomko2.5018880LSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 8 · 10:35O. Volynets2.101111113Y. Kovshun1.675560WSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113
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