TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111255
Played Sep 11Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151412911113––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 22–14 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1569 vs Karpenko 1616
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 60% vs Karpenko 80%
Karpenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.73 / Karpenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovshun)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111255
Kovshun1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Karpenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 84 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun6wins
AwayKarpenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun100%4 of 4
AwayKarpenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun6Karpenko4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Kovshun5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovshun6Karpenko3n = 9Kovshun took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunKarpenkoKovshun − KarpenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.3+3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 642 vs 360 / 68953.6%52.3%344 / 642 vs 360 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.73/Karpenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun—11149113O. Karpenko—5121131
LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun—51181182O. Karpenko—117116113
WJul 24 · 07:05Y. Kovshun—12811113O. Karpenko—1011751
LJul 9 · 06:00Y. Kovshun—8960O. Karpenko—1111113
WJul 3 · 06:35Y. Kovshun—91112113O. Karpenko—1131071
WJun 30 · 10:40Y. Kovshun—117116113O. Karpenko—21161192
LJun 26 · 09:05Y. Kovshun—1111791O. Karpenko—13311113
WMay 28 · 07:35Y. Kovshun—41111113O. Karpenko—116891
WMay 22 · 05:05Y. Kovshun—11118113O. Karpenko—951151
LMay 18 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—871751O. Karpenko—111115113
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3351161182V. Bilobrov3.25119115113WSep 8 · 11:35D. Khairov3.50811111162Y. Kovshun1.28119413113LSep 8 · 10:35O. Volynets2.101111113Y. Kovshun1.675560WSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272
O. Karpenko10
LSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113WSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113WSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461WSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892
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