TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111258
Played Sep 11Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91118161210115––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 92 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 75–42 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 42 of their 117 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
75-42 in 117
Volkov
Correct
gap of 33 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1618 vs Kovshun 1565
Volkov
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 20% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 40% vs Kovshun 70%
Kovshun
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov +1 · Kovshun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Volkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volkov form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.80 / Kovshun 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Volkov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111258
Volkov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 159 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it96% 79 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it85% 116 of 136
Kovshun1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 44 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov5wins
AwayKovshun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov80%4 of 5
AwayKovshun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S2Volkov5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S3Volkov7Kovshun3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S4Volkov4Kovshun4n = 8split evenly
S5Volkov1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKovshunV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.4+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 778 vs 343 / 64053.2%53.6%414 / 778 vs 343 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.80/Kovshun 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Volkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov—1113113Y. Kovshun—81170
WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov—9111111113Y. Kovshun—11136912
LAug 29 · 05:05Y. Volkov—881191Y. Kovshun—11119113
LAug 15 · 11:05Y. Volkov—4116101Y. Kovshun—11911123
LJul 31 · 10:19Y. Volkov—511571Y. Kovshun—11511113
WJul 31 · 07:35Y. Volkov—14117113Y. Kovshun—1271141
LJul 28 · 05:05Y. Volkov—111211772Y. Kovshun—514911113
WJul 25 · 11:05Y. Volkov—111111113Y. Kovshun—713481
LJul 24 · 05:05Y. Volkov—118111122Y. Kovshun—131188113
WJul 18 · 12:05Y. Volkov—1111113Y. Kovshun—5670
Y. Volkov10
WSep 11 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.4031116113V. Bilobrov2.751161481LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113LSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113LSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113LSep 8 · 06:00Y. Volkov2.0012101281Y. Holoborodko1.73141210113WSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3351161182V. Bilobrov3.25119115113WSep 8 · 11:35D. Khairov3.50811111162Y. Kovshun1.28119413113LSep 8 · 10:35O. Volynets2.101111113Y. Kovshun1.675560WSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan2.63119117102Y. Kovshun1.44411411123WSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi3.50681181Y. Kovshun1.2811119113LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170
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