TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126219
Played Sep 14Finished
Andrii Obishchenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
111811811117511
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Obishchenko to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Obishchenko above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 84 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Andrii Obishchenko at 66.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Obishchenko 2–0 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Obishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Obishchenko 1656 vs Karpenko 1616
Obishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obishchenko 80% vs Karpenko 60%
Obishchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obishchenko 60% vs Karpenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Obishchenko +2 · Karpenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Obishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObishchenko 1.40 / Karpenko 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Obishchenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126219
Obishchenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 33 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Karpenko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeObishchenko2wins
AwayKarpenko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderObishchenko leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricObishchenkoKarpenkoO − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match44.037.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObishchenkoKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 136 vs 360 / 68951.5%52.3%70 / 136 vs 360 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObishchenkoObishchenko 1.40/Karpenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Obishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 5 · 11:05A. Obishchenko331111113O. Karpenko236980
WMay 1 · 12:05A. Obishchenko5511111210113O. Karpenko51913101272
A. Obishchenko10
WSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251111113A. Troyan3.755960LSep 8 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.9177100Y. Kovshun1.801111123WSep 8 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.401111113D. Khairov2.756550WSep 8 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.501311113O. Volynets2.5011930WAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102LAug 20 · 09:00A. Obishchenko1.679830A. Kotiash2.101111113LAug 20 · 07:30A. Obishchenko1.208911121A. Troyan4.3311115143WAug 20 · 06:00A. Obishchenko1.91711811113Y. Holoborodko1.8011911772LAug 20 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.805690Y. Volkov1.911111113
O. Karpenko10
LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113WSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113WSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461WSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120
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