TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130318
Played Sep 15Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411112411511––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 80.7% is still 80.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
80.7%
80.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 59 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 80.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 1–6 Yaroslav Kovshun Ihor Emets has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1518 vs Kovshun 1653
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 80% vs Kovshun 100%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 60% vs Kovshun 90%
Kovshun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets +4 · Kovshun +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 4.33 / Kovshun 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Kovshun)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130318
Emets4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Kovshun1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it81% 67 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeEmets1wins
AwayKovshun6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovshun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S2Emets2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S3Emets2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S4Emets1Kovshun3n = 4Kovshun took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricEmetsKovshunE − KBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match29.136.3−7.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 499 vs 343 / 63451.1%54.1%255 / 499 vs 343 / 634Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunEmets 4.33/Kovshun 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets24411451Y. Kovshun3511211113
LJul 9 · 05:00I. Emets175570Y. Kovshun331111113
LJul 4 · 05:00I. Emets49111191172Y. Kovshun51791113113
LMay 25 · 07:00I. Emets185490Y. Kovshun331111113
LApr 28 · 10:30I. Emets336101161Y. Kovshun4111127113
WApr 24 · 11:05I. Emets3911611113Y. Kovshun28711731
LDec 10 · 09:30I. Emets249780Y. Kovshun331111113
I. Emets10
WSep 15 · 05:00I. Emets1.3611512113A. Troyan3.006111081WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123LSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380LSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881WSep 12 · 11:35Y. Volkov1.8011211762Y. Kovshun1.91611911113WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113WSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113
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