TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117022
Played Sep 12Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116211119711611
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 76–42 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 42 of their 118 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
76-42 in 118
Volkov
Wrong
gap of 34 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1660 vs Kovshun 1624
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 80% vs Kovshun 100%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 60% vs Kovshun 80%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov +3 · Kovshun +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Volkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.80 / Kovshun 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Volkov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13117022
Volkov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 162 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it96% 79 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it85% 116 of 137
Kovshun1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 45 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov5wins
AwayKovshun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov75%3 of 4
AwayKovshun66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Volkov5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S3Volkov7Kovshun3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S4Volkov5Kovshun4n = 9Volkov took 5 of 9
S5Volkov1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKovshunV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.8+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 784 vs 348 / 64653.4%53.9%419 / 784 vs 348 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.80/Kovshun 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov—91812113Y. Kovshun—11161051
WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov—1113113Y. Kovshun—81170
WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov—9111111113Y. Kovshun—11136912
LAug 29 · 05:05Y. Volkov—881191Y. Kovshun—11119113
LAug 15 · 11:05Y. Volkov—4116101Y. Kovshun—11911123
LJul 31 · 10:19Y. Volkov—511571Y. Kovshun—11511113
WJul 31 · 07:35Y. Volkov—14117113Y. Kovshun—1271141
LJul 28 · 05:05Y. Volkov—111211772Y. Kovshun—514911113
WJul 25 · 11:05Y. Volkov—111111113Y. Kovshun—713481
LJul 24 · 05:05Y. Volkov—118111122Y. Kovshun—131188113
Y. Volkov10
WSep 12 · 09:35I. Efimenko1.6141090Y. Volkov2.201112113WSep 12 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.5711113113A. Troyan2.25881151WSep 12 · 07:35A. Kotiash3.406101101Y. Volkov1.3011129113LSep 12 · 06:05Y. Volkov1.3671112752V. Bilobrov3.001181011113WSep 11 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.30611911113A. Kotiash3.4011311392WSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051WSep 11 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.4031116113V. Bilobrov2.751161481LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113LSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113LSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113WSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3351161182V. Bilobrov3.25119115113WSep 8 · 11:35D. Khairov3.50811111162Y. Kovshun1.28119413113
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