TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111150
Played Sep 11Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611113911113119
Andrii Kotiash
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 75.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 14–3 Andrii Kotiash Andrii Kotiash has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Volkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-3 in 17
Volkov
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1628 vs Kotiash 1496
Volkov
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 40% vs Kotiash 0%
Volkov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 40% vs Kotiash 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov +2 · Kotiash -5
Kotiash
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Volkov) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.30 / Kotiash 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Volkov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111150
Volkov1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 159 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it96% 79 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it85% 116 of 136
Kotiash3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov8wins
AwayKotiash2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov100%7 of 7
AwayKotiash66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov7Kotiash3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S2Volkov6Kotiash4n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S3Volkov10Kotiash0n = 10Volkov took 10 of 10
S4Volkov4Kotiash2n = 6Volkov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKotiashV − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.828.8+8.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 779 vs 223 / 46853.3%47.7%415 / 779 vs 223 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.30/Kotiash 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Volkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:19Y. Volkov—11211123A. Kotiash—9115101
LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov—741151A. Kotiash—11119113
WAug 22 · 07:05Y. Volkov—1111133A. Kotiash—75110
WAug 20 · 11:00Y. Volkov—1211113A. Kotiash—10440
WAug 7 · 09:05Y. Volkov—81211113A. Kotiash—1110561
WAug 4 · 07:05Y. Volkov—1112113A. Kotiash—31030
WAug 3 · 06:35Y. Volkov—12811113A. Kotiash—1011531
LJul 18 · 10:05Y. Volkov—61111582A. Kotiash—113811113
WJul 17 · 07:00Y. Volkov—1112113A. Kotiash—31060
WJul 11 · 11:05Y. Volkov—11813113A. Kotiash—4111141
Y. Volkov10
WSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051WSep 11 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.4031116113V. Bilobrov2.751161481LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113LSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113LSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113LSep 8 · 06:00Y. Volkov2.0012101281Y. Holoborodko1.73141210113WSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123
A. Kotiash10
LSep 11 · 09:30A. Kotiash1.409720V. Bilobrov2.751111113LSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193LSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.738950Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.2066100A. Troyan1.611111123LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
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