TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130371
Played Sep 15Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1165111210118––
Andrey Troyan
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ihor Emets at 69.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 23–4 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 4 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-4 in 27
Emets
Correct
gap of 19 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1526 vs Troyan 1619
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 60% vs Troyan 40%
Emets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 50% vs Troyan 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets +3 · Troyan -2
Emets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Emets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Emets form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.36 / Troyan 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Emets)+0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13130371
Emets1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 65 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Troyan3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 51 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back14% 15 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets8wins
AwayTroyan2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets88.9%8 of 9
AwayTroyann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets9Troyan1n = 10Emets took 9 of 10
S2Emets4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Emets7Troyan3n = 10Emets took 7 of 10
S4Emets4Troyan2n = 6Emets took 4 of 6
S5Emets2Troyan1n = 3Emets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsTroyanE − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.530.8+7.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 498 vs 466 / 98451.2%47.4%255 / 498 vs 466 / 984Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.36/Troyan 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 05:00I. Emets3911512113A. Troyan356111081
WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets331111113A. Troyan206860
WAug 31 · 05:00I. Emets3811511113A. Troyan28911441
LAug 25 · 05:00I. Emets197660A. Troyan331111113
WJul 21 · 10:05I. Emets4211911113A. Troyan31811751
WJul 13 · 08:05I. Emets50111189113A. Troyan4047111172
LJul 6 · 10:05I. Emets4611961192A. Troyan41311115113
WJul 1 · 08:30I. Emets521191110113A. Troyan4591171262
WJun 29 · 05:00I. Emets331111113A. Troyan219930
WJun 24 · 05:00I. Emets331111113A. Troyan143380
I. Emets10
LSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123LSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380LSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113
A. Troyan10
WSep 15 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov3.00119331A. Troyan1.3681111113LSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251114113A. Troyan3.7581250WSep 14 · 08:05Y. Volkov1.67711451A. Troyan2.1011911113LSep 14 · 07:05A. Troyan2.5079111152Y. Holoborodko1.50111197113WSep 14 · 06:05V. Ishchuk1.801011871A. Troyan1.9112711113WSep 12 · 12:05V. Bilobrov2.204101151A. Troyan1.6111127113LSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113LSep 12 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.5711113113A. Troyan2.25881151LSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860
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